Subject: Righward shift seen among N.J Senators: By Cynthia Burton, Inquirer Staff Writer; A conservative run against a Republican Party-backed candidate in a New Jersey primary is about as reliable as the blooming of forsythia along Interstate 295. Only occasionally will a conservative break through in a Republican district and win a general election. But the 2007 legislative cycle, with all 120 Senate and Assembly seats up for grabs, is different: When the dust of the forthcoming primary and general elections settles, Trenton may see a more conservative Republican caucus in the Legislature. Nine of the Senate's 18 Republican senators have announced they will not seek reelection, and at least half are considered more moderate than their likely successors. Atlantic County's retired State Sen. William Gormley and Morris County's retiring state Sen. Bob Martin both voted in favor of civil unions. Two other retiring Republican senators - Martha Bark of Burlington County and Joseph Palaia of Monmouth County - broke ranks with the Republican caucus and voted with Gormley and Martin for stem-cell research. "It's inevitable we are going to get more conservatives because a bunch of the people retiring are not conservative," said Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R., Morris), one of a handful of conservative legislators who refer to themselves as the Mountain Men. Atlantic County Republicans chose longtime Egg Harbor Township Mayor James "Sonny" McCullough to run for Gormley's seat; McCullough has both fiscally and socially conservative views. Incumbent Republican Assemblyman Frank Blee, a moderate, chose not to seek reelection and said he'd endorse the likely Democratic candidate, Assemblyman and former Atlantic City Mayor James Whelan. In Morris County, Assemblyman Joseph Pennacchio is running with the party's support for Martin's seat and has a much more conservative voting record than Martin. Candidates running for the Assembly seat he is leaving can also boast conservative credentials. Where there are primaries, some candidates are running "more conservative than thou" races, appealing to partisans who tend to be more to the right than those who only show up for the general election. "From traditional Republican strongholds, [being conservative] plays well to the group of likely voters in the primary," said Joseph Marbach, a Seton Hall University political scientist. In District 40, which runs through Bergen, Passaic and Essex Counties, one slate of Republican primary candidates is calling itself the "Reagan Republican Team," and it is running against a slate that can hardly be considered bleeding hearts. In Sussex County, there is a primary, but analysts say both slates reflect the conservative nature of the area's primary voters. Assemblyman Guy Gregg, one of the Mountain Men, is leading a ticket against Sussex Freeholder Steve Orojo, who recently issued a statement calling out one of the state's Republican congressmen for his "liberal record" of gun-control support. This move to the right in the legislative caucus comes as New Jersey is proving itself an increasingly impossible dream for Republicans, who last won the governor's mansion with Christie Whitman in 1997 and a U.S. Senate seat with Cliff Case in 1972. Dan Cassino, a political scientist at Fairleigh Dickinson University, said New Jersey was not as blue as some might think. "New Jersey is not that liberal of a state among whites. Whites are 50-50 Republican and Democratic," he said. "It is considered a blue state because of its large minority population." Republicans running in GOP solid districts run as hard to the right as they can to attract those conservative primary voters. When it comes time for the general election - especially in gerrymandered districts - candidates are free to ignore Democrats and activate the conservative base, he said. Kevin Collins, a conservative Republican strategist, has been advising clients for years to run to the right. He's working on the "Reagan Republican Team" race in Bergen, Passaic and Essex Counties. Collins says the party can get support from socially conservative Democrats - the kind who voted for President Ronald Reagan - with more conservative candidates. "The establishment is having a harder and harder time selling this base with every election. The lack of results comes from them trying to ram liberal candidates down the throats of the conservative base of the party," he said. But Whitman's former chief of staff, Judy Shaw, now a partner in the lobbying firm MBI-GluckShaw, says that while she understands Collins' point, "So far, moving to the right has not been successful for Republicans in [statewide races] for governor and U.S. Senate." How will more conservatives play in the GOP caucus room? Minority Leader Leonard Lance, a Hunterdon County Republican, said he doesn't expect deep changes even though half of his 18-member caucus is leaving office. "On the Republican side, it's bittersweet because we lose the institutional memory of those who are retiring, but the new members by and large are coming from the Assembly and are vigorous," he said.

RESPONSE: As more an more moderate rational Republicans leave their Party it becomes more and more clear that the GOP is controlled by ultra extremists of the nut wing non mainstream scary fanatics.